Tax Cuts, Stimulus Spending, Low Interest Rates Do Little to Create Jobs

“In carrying out its QE2 purchases, the Fed had to follow standard operating procedure for “open market operations”: it took secret bids from the 20 “primary dealers”authorized to sell securities to the Fed and accepted the best offers. The problem was that 12 of these dealers — or over half — are U.S.-based branches of foreign banks (including BNP Paribas, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, UBS and others), and they evidently won the bids.

…According to Scott Fullwiler, Associate Professor of Economics at Wartburg College, the money multiplier model is not just broken but obsolete.”

Ellen Brown, Why QE2 Failed: The Money All Went Overseas,  Huffington Post, July 11, 2011,

In the past 60 years, job growth has actually been greater in years when the top income tax rate was much higher than it is now. … in years when the top marginal rate was more than 90 percent, the average annual growth in total payroll employment was 2 percent. In years when the top marginal rate was 35 percent or less—which it is now—employment grew by an average of just 0.4 percent. … if you ranked each year since 1950 by overall job growth, the top five years would all boast marginal tax rates at 70 percent or higher. The top 10 years would share marginal tax rates at 50 percent or higher.

Michael Linden, Rich People’s Taxes Have Little to Do with Job Creation, Center for American Progress, June 27, 2011,

“Of particular note, we find that fiscal policy is less effective in lifting recovery growth in more open economies. In open economies, fiscal stimulus may spill over to higher growth in partner countries by increasing demand for imported foreign goods and services. This finding suggests the need for more coordination in fiscal stimulus across countries, so that the spillover to other countries is offset by equivalent increases in foreign demand for domestic goods and services.”

Cerra, Valerie, Ugo Panizza, and Sweta C. Saxena, International Evidence on Recovery from Recessions, Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, 2009.

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In the current U.S. open economy environment (put into place over decades of pro-globalization policy shifts) neither larger tax cuts for consumers nor larger tax cuts for corporations nor lower taxes for the wealthiest Americans nor Federal Reserve actions to lower borrowing costs for banking institutions have had the positive U.S. job growth effects we desire.  Millions of working people are unemployed and most U.S. families are experiencing either stagnant income levels or falling incomes.

  • Consumers do buy more with their tax cuts, but a large part of the job creation effect goes to other parts of the world because so much of what we consume is imported
  • Banks do increase their lending, but a large part of the lending is used to finance projects outside the U.S.
  • The corporations do use their tax breaks to increase investments in new plants and facilities, but an increasingly large part of those investments go into emerging market areas of the world
  • Wealthier Americans do use tax savings to increase stock holdings, and thus contribute to the pool of investment funds, but more and more the wealthy purchase stocks in corporations that are expanding operations in emerging markets because that is where the highest returns are being obtained.

U.S. job creation and income distribution policies are out of date.  They were designed for the affluent manufacturing nations operating in the much less economically integrated world of the mid twentieth century.  Major changes in the U.S. policy approach to creating jobs and distributing income will be required to put things right for U.S. families.

U.S. Private Sector Investment Strategies Do Not Favor U.S. Employment Growth

“At GE, our success is predicated on accurately assessing the dynamic forces that are reshaping our world and having a strategy in place to make the most of the opportunities they present.”

Our Viewpoints, GE Website

“International revenues from Industrial (ex NBCU) were $13.4 billion, up 23% representing 59% of total Industrial revenues. GE revenue for the Industrial segments accelerated in growth regions, including double-digit increases in India, China, Southeast Asia, Africa, Russia, Australia, Canada, and Latin America.”

GE Corporation Press Release, July 22, 2011, GE Website

According to a Fox Business story, GE had a worldwide workforce of 287,000 at the end of 2010, of which the U.S. share was 133,000.

Bob Sechler, GE’s Worldwide Workforce Down 5.6% In 2010 At 287,000, February 25, 2011, Dow Jones Newswires.

———————–Comments———————–

Burdening the U.S. private sector with creating enough job growth to achieve something close to the frictional rate of unemployment (unemployment due mainly to brief periods of unemployment between jobs) is misguided in the current world economic context.

First, U.S. corporations are legally required to pursue the investment strategies that best serve their stockholders.  Many more opportunities for profitable investments in facilities and workforces are emerging in other parts of the world than in the U.S.

Second, neither U.S. corporations nor other U.S. businesses are legally required to create jobs for U.S. workers, except to the extent they have entered into contractual agreements to do so.

Private sector job growth must be supplemented by government programs to produce public sector jobs and/or to reduce demand for jobs by engaging potential workers in paid alternatives to private sector employment.  Such activities might include paid educational leaves, paid parental leaves for up to a year, career change leaves, longer annual vacations, etc.

Only by creating such a combination of socially recognized entitlements to income can we restore the U.S. middle class to good financial health and again produce success in reducing the number of Americans living in poverty.

Economists Discover Consumer Demand Problem. It’s About Time!

“The main reason U.S. companies are reluctant to step up hiring is scant demand, rather than uncertainty over government policies, according to a majority of economists in a new Wall Street Journal survey.”

Phil Izzo, Dearth of Demand Seen Behind Weak Hiring, Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2011

(See my post on July 14 for an estimate prepared by Moody’s Analytics of the dollars that will be drained from U.S. consumer demand by the end of this year because of changes in government programs.)

The political fight over the deficit is off target.  The political fight over the size of government is off target.  The traditional public-private system for equitably distributing the wealth we produce (a substantial level of high wage private sector employment supplemented by government employment and targeted income entitlements) is badly broken because the private sector can’t create enough jobs, much less enough quality jobs for the old system to work.

Given investment trends now at work in the world economy, and given the weakness of the labor movement, the U.S. private sector will necessarily play a much smaller role in equitably and rationally distributing the vast amount of wealth produced in the U.S. every year than it did in the past.   It will not produce enough jobs and high enough earnings to do the wealth distribution job that must be done.

Government will have to play a bigger role or we will have to give up a lot more economic security and wellbeing than we already have.